November Market Report - What’s Happening Now & What to Expect in December

Welcome to our latest market breakdown. The transition into winter always shapes kitchen menus, but this year’s unique growing conditions, from low UK potato yields to fluctuating dairy and fruit markets, mean forward planning is more critical than ever. In this report, we cut through the industry jargon to bring you clear, straightforward updates across fresh produce, dairy, bakery, and oils. Inside, you’ll find key crop forecasts, price trends, practical kitchen tips, and a quick Jargon Buster to keep your entire team informed and ready for the busy festive run-ahead.

The Soft Fruit Shift: Traditional strawberry season has wrapped up, with Dutch imports stepping in. A word of caution: the further we get from local season, the more soft fruits (including blueberries, blackberries, and raspberries travelling from further afield) can lose texture and flavour.

Orchard Highlights: British and French apples are doing brilliantly. Keep an eye out for French Lady apples (crisp and sharp) alongside UK classics like Discovery, Cox, and the underrated Russet, which brings a fantastic nutty flavour to the fruit bowl and pastry section.

Pomegranates & Quince: Jewel-like pomegranate seeds are adding crunch and colour to autumn dishes, while UK quince is arriving for chefs looking to experiment with fragrant, tart compotes and sweet-savoury pairings.

Citrus on the Horizon: Classic festive signs are arriving soon—Spanish satsumas and blood oranges are due from late November into December, followed later by bitter marmalade oranges for early batch prep.

Lime supplies will remain tight and prices elevated through mid-November following heavy rainfall in Brazil that disrupted harvesting. A new shipment is expected to arrive by mid-month, though market recovery will be gradual.

Potato Issues: Severe weather and summer heatwaves severely damaged potato crops across the UK. Large baking potatoes continue to command firm pricing, meaning a little forward planning is well worth your time. Because raw material volumes are so low, the open "free-buy" spot market has effectively disappeared, forcing buyers to rely heavily on pre-arranged supply lines. Our Top tip! Be ready to use smaller spuds or mixed sizes on your menu, and lean into hearty root vegetables which offer steady storage availability.

Festive Roots: Looking ahead to the Christmas rush, UK Chantenay carrots, parsnips, and Scottish carrots are all looking robust and ready for menu planning. To add character to winter menus without relying on the usual expensive items, consider UK celeriac, earthy white turnips, and nutty Jerusalem artichokes.

Cauliflower: As temperatures drop, British cauliflower and broccoli are stepping aside for the season, handing over supply to Spanish cauliflower and French broccoli.

Red Cabbage & Sprouts: Red cabbage is looking exceptional right now, rich in colour and perfect for autumnal slaws, braises, and sides. And yes, sprouts are back. Love them or loathe them, they have plenty of culinary potential well beyond the traditional festive roast.

Squashes: Traditional orange pumpkins are finishing up, but French Grey varieties and mixed squashes are still running strong, offering sweet depth for soups, risottos, and purées.

Tightening Milk Supplies: GB milk production is constrained (down roughly 2.2% to 4% compared to last year) due to higher on-farm operating costs and contracting dairy herd numbers. Farm-gate milk prices have climbed to an average of 38.45 pence per litre (ppl).

Cheddar Dominance: Cheddar cheese remains the single strongest-performing and most expensive dairy category, trading 8–12% higher year-on-year due to persistent high foodservice demand and tight winter collections.   

Butter & Powders: While butter markets have experienced slight softening (3–5% off recent peaks), skimmed and whole milk powders have strengthened by 5–7%.   

Contracted Market: Months before planting or harvesting, food processors and wholesalers such as ASDA or Tesco lock in contracts with farmers to buy a specific volume of crops at a fixed, pre-agreed price. This sounds great for the farmers; however, supermarkets frequently push the financial risks back onto the farm. Farmers often have to shoulder rising costs for fuel, fertiliser, and labour while being locked into a fixed price that doesn't rise with inflation.

Free-Buy (Spot) Market: Any extra, uncontracted crop left over is sold on the open market at live daily prices to the highest bidder. When a report says "the free-buy market has effectively disappeared," it means bad harvests left farmers with no surplus stock. Anyone without a pre-existing contract cannot easily find simple produce and must pay steep premium spot prices.